From Damascus to Cairo: How Regime Change in Syria Could Impact Egypt

A few weeks after the fall of Damascus, Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi issued a stark warning about the potential ripple effects on Egypt. He cautioned that Syria's collapse could serve as a precursor to efforts aimed at destabilising Egypt:

"I hope you pay attention to every word I say to you. The goal of what is happening today is to bring down the Egyptian state. As part of the strategy they are working on, they know very well that the cohesion of the state—the unity of the Egyptian people—must be broken. They aim to drive a wedge between Muslims and Christians, to dismantle the solidarity that binds Egyptians together. Their ultimate goal is to bring Egypt to its knees. If Egypt falls, chaos will prevail across the entire world. They have already destroyed Syria, and today, all efforts are focused on destroying the Egyptian economy and shattering social peace in Egypt."

Syria’s Potential Impact on Egypt

Syria's Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) is a conglomerate of various global Islamist factions, including groups associated with the Muslim Brotherhood, former Al-Qaeda members, and former ISIS operatives.

The Egyptian regime has a longstanding history of conflict with Islamist groups, especially the Muslim Brotherhood, as well as Salafist organizations. The brief rule of the Muslim Brotherhood after the 2011 Arab Spring destabilized Egypt, fostering chaos, sectarianism, and a sharp decline in governance. This instability ultimately led the Egyptian military to stage a coup, which restored a new phase of dictatorship under President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi. Meanwhile, HTS has been vocal about expanding its ideological and revolutionary influence beyond Syria, aiming to spread the impact of the Syrian revolution to the broader Arab and Muslim world, including Egypt.

A prominent Egyptian jihadi figure within HTS, Ahmad Mansour, issued a stark warning to Sisi on January 5, 2025, declaring:

"Listen, Sisi, listen you idiot, you clumsy son of a Jewess, when Bashar fled, he sold out everyone around him, even his brother. Your time is up! Do you think that when you flee to the new administrative capital, the kingdom that you are building inside the country with the people's money, do you think the high walls will protect you from the people when they rise up to take their rights from you? Take it from someone with experience, neither the high walls nor the tunnels will benefit you! Because your turn has come, dictator!"

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This message followed the spread of rumors about potential anti-government protests in Egypt, largely circulated by Salafi and jihadi social media accounts. Though later debunked as fake, the very existence of such reports signals a growing discontent and mobilization among some segments of Egyptian society.

Concurrently, the newly formed Egyptian Revolutionary Council issued an urgent call to action, imploring Egyptians to rise against the regime of President Sisi. The council condemned the ongoing tyranny and military control, warning that continued oppression would lead to catastrophic consequences for the country. They argued that the conditions for a major revolution are on the horizon, driven by the people's struggle for freedom and dignity. The council urged Egyptians, from all walks of life, to unite against the regime, take control of national institutions, and restore Egypt to its people. Furthermore, they called on mid-level military officers and soldiers to support the revolution, ensuring a peaceful transition of power while safeguarding Egypt’s sovereignty. Drawing on the inspiration of regional uprisings, including the Syrian revolution, the council envisions a wave of change spreading through Egypt and potentially reverberating across the Arab world.

Given the geopolitical connections between Syria and Egypt, as well as the shared ambitions and networks of HTS, there are significant reasons to believe that events in Syria could eventually have a direct or indirect impact on Egypt. The ideological push from HTS, coupled with the role of social media in mobilizing protests, could fuel new waves of unrest. The rapid spread of information through digital platforms similar to the Arab Spring is a factor that could empower various opposition groups, radical or otherwise, to ignite change. The synergies between the regional dynamics, HTS's influence, and Egypt’s volatile political climate suggest that the future of Egypt may be deeply intertwined with developments in Syria. If the Syrian revolution’s legacy continues to influence the Arab world, Egypt may soon face mounting challenges, both from within and outside its borders, that could trigger a similar path of upheaval. Whether these movements will succeed in overturning Egypt's current regime or lead to greater instability remains uncertain, but the potential for significant change is real.

Israel's Potential Role

The situation surrounding Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) in Syria and its potential influence in the broader Middle East has not gone unnoticed by Israel. HTS made significant movements toward Aleppo shortly after the Israel-Lebanon ceasefire. This coincided with a direct warning from then Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, who was cautioned, "You are playing with fire." As HTS ramped up its campaign in northern Syria, Israel quickly shifted its focus to the southern border, expanding its military presence deep inside Syrian territory. In this context, Israel launched over 500 air strikes targeting Syria's military, industrial, and research sites, effectively crippling the country's defense capabilities.

Simultaneously, Israeli politicians have been vocal about plans to relocate Palestinians from Gaza to Egypt's Sinai Peninsula. Such a move would allow Israel to annex Gaza, integrating it into the broader Israeli territory and establishing new settlements. The reorganization of Gaza would serve not only as a long-term solution to what Israel sees as the "Gaza issue" but also as a strategic shift in the region's political landscape. Israel’s territorial expansion could thus benefit from the destabilization of neighboring countries, especially Egypt.

Instability in Egypt would work in Israel’s favor, creating an environment conducive to its long-term strategic goals. A weakened or fractured Egypt would provide Israel with the opportunity to implement its plan for Gaza more effectively and permanently, while sidestepping any potential resistance from Egypt's government. With Egypt’s military historically regarded as the most formidable Arab force, any decline in the country's stability could significantly reduce its capacity to challenge Israeli ambitions. In this way, the collapse or internal unrest within Egypt could serve as a golden opportunity for Israel, not dissimilar to its actions in Syria, where Israel sought to undermine Syria's military potential and assert its influence in the region.

Moreover, a weakened Egyptian state could shift the balance of power in the Middle East, making it easier for Israel to pursue its expansionist goals, not only in Gaza but also in terms of broader regional dominance. The Egyptian military, as one of the few remaining forces capable of opposing Israel, would lose much of its deterrence power in the face of internal turmoil, allowing Israel to operate with greater freedom and confidence in its territorial plans.

In conclusion, the instability in Egypt would serve Israel’s interests on multiple fronts—allowing for the annexation of Gaza, diminishing the military threat posed by Egypt, and facilitating its broader regional objectives. If the unrest were to spread, Israel could further capitalize on the situation, pushing its agenda forward in a destabilized region where few nations are in a position to oppose it effectively.